GDC09：预测，现在的主机平台将会是最后一代？ _ 游民星空 GamerSky.com

在今天的旧金山GamesBeat 2009游戏大会上，业界评论家Michael Pachter(Wedbush Morgan), Colin Sebastian(Lazard Capital Markets)、(DFC Intelligence)和and David Cole(DFC Intelligence)发表了他们对接下来的十年游戏业界的看法。最有趣的是，有个观点是“不会有下一代主机。”

“我认为我们看到的是最后一代主机了，” Pachter声称。他认为任天堂也许会在某个时候升级Wii（也许是HD，更大的存储空间）。但是全部的3个主机制造商，将会不愿意再生产新的主机了,以后他们可能会变成一个标准的传递平台。为什么会这样呢？因为没有钱在这方面投入了。“而且第三方游戏发行商也不会轻易允许他们这么做，他们可不想看到PS4或者Xbox720。”他指出，开发商们正在昂贵的游戏开发费用中挣扎，“他们的想法不会有什么重大改变，因为开发商承受不了这些费用。”他的观点就是，目前的主机平台会伴随我们一直延续到未来。

而Sebastian不同意这个观点，他认为游戏界还会有下一代主机，而且他预计会在2012年到来。Cole是赞同他的观点的，而且Core认为，到了2012年，PS3会成为游戏软件的主导，而微软和任天堂就不得不推出新的主机来对抗竞争。

Pachter最后预测说，我们会有一段时间看不到索尼的新主机。“索尼是不会推出新主机的，直到他在这一代主机上赚了大钱，而我预计这会发生在2015年。”

原文如下：At the GamesBeat 2009 Games Conference in San Francisco today, games industry analysts Michael Pachter (Wedbush Morgan), Colin Sebastian (Lazard Capital Markets), and David Cole (DFC Intelligence) delivered their thoughts on the next 10 years of the games industry. Most interesting are the analysts’ predictions for the next console generation -- or lack thereof. "

I think we’ve seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter claims. He says Nintendo will likely upgrade the Wii at some point (perhaps with HD and more storage), but all three console makers will be reluctant to release any subsequent consoles -- in the future it’ll be more about a standard delivery platfrom. Why? Because there’s no money in it for them. And because the third party publishers simply won’t allow it. “[Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720,” he says, pointing to the fact that they’re already largely struggling with the cost of developing games today. “The content is not going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can’t afford it,” he continues, suggesting that the current crop of consoles will be the ones to last us well into the future. Sebastian disagrees, instead saying the games industry will have one more console generation, which will hit in 2012. Cole agrees with him, saying that in 2012 the PS3 will be the leading platform for software sales and that both Microsoft and Nintendo will be forced to launch new platforms (Sony would likely wait a bit longer). Pachter at least agrees that we wouldn’t see another Sony platform for quite some time. “Sony is not going to put out a console until they make a profit on this generation, and my math puts that at around 2015.”